Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri........
KUALA LUMPUR, Oct 1 - The story of Malaysia mired in political uncertainty is old news, but the line-up of political events this month has raised expectations that some stability could return to the country.
October marks the start of election season for Umno, the Malaysian Chinese Association (MCA) and Gerakan - three of the major components of the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition.
And it is also in this month that Parliament will reconvene, providing a make-or-break opportunity for opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to seize power through defections.
By the end of the month, Malaysians could have a clearer idea of the country's direction, after nearly seven months of leadership tussles since the March general election threw the power balance off-kilter.
It will come as a relief as political fatigue has set in and fears over the economy have heightened. More than 50 per cent of respondents in a recent survey cited economic issues as their biggest worry.
"The government has been unable to respond to the economic crisis with even a basic plan of action," said Umno veteran Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah in a recent statement.
The most-watched event this month will begin on Oct 9 with Umno's 191 divisions starting their annual meetings to make nominations for top posts in the party. Party elections will be held in March.
Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, who has indicated early retirement, has pledged to announce by then if he will contest the Umno presidency. By convention, the Umno president is also Malaysia's prime minister.
If he does not, it will mean a handover of power to his deputy, Najib Razak, by March. But if he does contest, it could mean more turbulence for Malaysia. The general consensus is that he will not stand but until he makes this clear, the tussling will continue.
Even now, there is talk that Abdullah's supporters want the premiership divorced from the Umno presidency. This means that Abdullah may remain prime minister, but such a move is highly unlikely to be acceptable.
The prolonged uncertainty has prompted three divisions to declare that they will nominate Najib for the top post, a signal to Abdullah that he may not make the 58 nominations needed to contest.
Oct 9 is closely watched as Abdullah's decision will have a bearing on the battle on another front - the war being waged by Anwar.
The opposition leader, who has repeatedly threatened to seize power through defections, will himself face a deadline of sorts when Parliament reconvenes on Oct 13 after a six-week recess.
He had challenged Abdullah to hold an emergency parliamentary session to face a vote of confidence. The PM has refused. But when Parliament reconvenes, Anwar will come under pressure to produce his defectors. His repeated failure to do so has already prompted some Malaysians to question his credibility.
"Anwar's credibility has already been hit, but he's a cat with nine lives," said political analyst Ong Kian Ming.
If Parliament reopens with the prospect of Najib becoming premier by March, it will make it more difficult for Anwar to achieve his ambition. A greater clarity about BN's future leadership will convince some of his claimed defectors to wait and see.
Gerakan, which has two MPs, may also pipe down on its threat to leave the coalition. It is not clear if president Koh Tsu Koon was serious when he said the Chinese-based party was not ruling out the possibility of switching alliances, but clearly his strong words were also geared towards his party's Oct 11 election.
Speculation is rife that he may face a challenge from a younger leader who will take a stronger line against Umno's increasingly sharp Malay rhetoric, as it seeks to regain voter support. The tone of its delegates' conference will provide clues to Gerakan's future direction, especially over the level of pressure from the grassroots for a pullout from the BN.
There is no similar threat from the BN's biggest Chinese party, MCA, which will hold its own election on Oct 18, but expect tough rhetoric from the delegates.
The presidency is being contested between the outspoken Transport Minister Ong Tee Keat and former Health Minister Chua Jui Meng.
October has all the hallmarks of a politically eventful month for Malaysia. By the time it ends though, things could be much more settled than they have been for some time. - The Straits Times
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